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Predictable Surprises (posted by Oliver Nyumbu)

Posted by Oliver Nyumbu
March 4th, 2007

It has been said that “…prediction is really difficult, especially when it has to do with the future”. I was reminded of this by a recent conversation with a really effective senior manager in a fast growing business. She said to me, “…the Directors in my organisation are surprised by too many things!” In other words, some of their surprises could have been predicted.

This is not about prescribing exactly how things will turn out. But, it certainly puts the onus on leaders to think carefully and regularly about the possible impacts of established organisational patterns or habits. Take for instance the fact that the Chief Executive either decides without tapping into the wisdom of the rest of the top team or he does not decide at all. This so frustrates members of the team that some now merely endure rather than energetically engage in dialogue and debate during meetings.

As you think of your own organisation, can you think of past surprises that with hind sight you might characterise as predictable?

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